Market Update

Saturday, 28 January 2017

Best Advisory Company; sensex up 10 from december lows investors should stay put despite b day volatility

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Sensex up 10% from December lows; investors should stay put despite B-Day volatility

The market began the week with a gap down reacting to Trump's 'Make in USA and hire in USA' rhetoric after the inauguration, but the inherent strength of the market was so strong that such noise was shrugged off immediately and market bounced back quickly thus setting tone of bullish outlook for the whole week ahead.

Not surprisingly, in such bullish undertones, the negative quarterly results were disregarded and stock prices defied all logic to inch higher.
Ashok Leyland BSE 6.81 % reported 13 per cent decline in profit, HUL BSE -1.53 % reported 10 per cent decline, M&M Fin reported losses and Wipro BSE -1.55 % reported muted growth of just 2 per cent in quarterly numbers.

Yet shrugging off all negatives, stock prices continued their upward march. This is in itself the biggest indicator of the bullish undercurrent in the market, and nothing is louder than this.

Events of the week:

CBI has arrested IDBI Bank's ex-CEO and CFO in connection with bad loans to Kingfisher Airlines BSE 3.03 %, potentially sending out a clear message, that henceforth no more dishonesty will be tolerated in the banking system.

The formulation of laws last year- Bankruptcy code 2016, Amendments in SARFAESI Act and professionalization of banking boards seems in totality a complete solution to the hitherto fragile banking sector.

It looks as if it's the start of "Ache Din" in the PSU banking space.

Technical Outlook:

The market has turned wild and volatile with high consensus for bullishness. Short covering coupled with optimism has led to sharp rise in the indices. Indicators have turned into overbought zones calling for caution in the immediate term.

The prices have touched the upper channel which will most likely attract profit booking. Traders should be cautious during times of high volatility and take a reactive view once the budget is over.

Long positional trades should be trailed with stops below 8,300, while short-term traders may partially book profits and trail the balance below 8,450. Traders should buy on dips while investors should hold on to their portfolios.

Expectations for the week:

The ongoing rally has gained momentum which is likely to become wild as an important event of the budget will unfold next week. Many astute traders stay on the sidelines when volatility coupled with an important event at the same time.

Almost all housing finance companies have reported double-digit growth rates, which has exemplified the benefits of demonetization, and for the first time given a ray of that the measures were in the interest of the economy.

Yet FPIs haven't started big time investments in the Indian markets. Hopefully, post budget, they will restart with a vengeance as they have been left out since the markets are already up by 10% from the December lows.

Budget day movements historically have been in line with the underlying current of the market which is buoyant this time around with a lot of hopes and expectations.

The undercurrent of the market is likely to remain strong irrespective of the Budget which may cause a single day wild fluctuation. Investors should keep on holding stocks in their portfolio. Nifty50 closed the week up by 3.50% at 8641.25.

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1 comment:

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