Latest Update , FY19 will be better than FY18; Nifty likely to hit 11,800 in FY19.By TradeIndia Research 31-03-18

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Don’t worry! FY19 will be better than FY18; Nifty likely to hit 11,800 in FY19.

At the end of the day, what matters is the earnings growth. Indian market always does well when we see good micros and not so great macros.

FY18 has given about 10 per cent kind of return considering Sensex or the Nifty. To that extent, the gains that we saw were largely led by liquidity and in between saw spikes. We also witnessed buoyancy in the primary market, more money flew in from domestic investors etc.

But, keeping all that aside – we know that in the short term markets are driven by sentiments, in the midterm it is driven by liquidity and in the long term, markets are driven by earnings growth.

At the end of the day, what matters is the earnings growth. Indian market always does well when we see good micros and not so great macros. If we look at the macros six months ago, it was fantastic which not the case right now.

In the last so many years we have not seen earnings coming in. But, in the last two quarters, we have seen that the trend is somewhat changing or reversing (fewer banks).

Growth which comes on the back of earnings is far more stable and far more sustainable than the liquidity-driven growth in the market. That is the reason why I believe that FY19 could be better. If we look at the collections in the GST, direct collections – both would be better.

We also believe that per capital income has been increasing will benefit consumer discretionary space. Select two-wheeler and four-wheeler space look good.

We believe that some of the asset management companies and insurance companies will also get the benefit of operating leverage. Insurance is one interesting sector for long-term from an investment point of view.

From there on, RBI and the government came out with various measure to solve the problem. The good thing is that we are at least recognizing these NPAs and they are coming into public domain otherwise they were always there which is a good thing.

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