Market Update

Thursday 26 April 2018

Free Stock Tips ,Oil, rupee to boost earnings but hurt economy: Where to invest in a Catch-22 market. By TradeIndia Research 26-04-18



Oil, rupee to boost earnings but hurt economy: Where to invest in a Catch-22 market.


Experts anticipate the market to trade in a range till risks of macro issue settle in, advise looking at select sectors or stocks.

Even as the market looks to steady itself after a cut of 10 percent from January highs, the macro situation could keep the Street on its toes. 
As such, it has managed to look beyond issues - higher oil prices and rising US bond yields - and rally ahead.
But rising oil prices and other macro factors could muddle the picture. Kotak Institutional Equities in a recent report said a sharp fall in the rupee along with higher commodity prices will support Q1 FY19 earnings even as the macro situation deteriorates.

It cites problems of a likely rise in current account deficit (CAD), weaker balance of payments and higher ‘imported’ inflation. 

“Bond yields have rebounded on the back of India’s weakening macro and the rupee has depreciated meaningfully. The equity market is trudging along nicely, detached from the ‘macro’ troubles of the real economy,” it said.


Kotak Institutional Equities said there has been modest EPS upgrades in IT stocks and sees more of the same in commodity stocks (barring downstream oil PSUs) on weaker rupee and higher commodity price assumptions if prices were to sustain at current levels.

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