Market Update

Saturday 30 June 2018

MCX Free Tips,All that glitters may not be gold By TradeIndia Research 30-06-18

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All that glitters may not be gold

Investors need to keep in mind that in the absence of a re-rating in the valuation multiple, long-term performance will largely track earnings growth.

In the past 1 year, Muthoot and Manappuram have generated returns of a negative 16 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively, as against over 12 percent gains for the Nifty. While the weakness prima facie looks like an opportunity,

Gold loan is inherently a secure lending business, with adequate collateral in the form of gold jewellery. Muthoot saw a sharp spike in its non-performing assets to 7 percent of loans (90 day past due) from 5.6 percent (120 dpd) in Q3 FY18 and 2.1 percent (120 dpd) in Q4 FY17 due to increase in share of shorter tenure loans and change in recognition norms to a borrower-based recognition.

Muthoot’s management is confident of recovering the entire amount in the next couple of quarters. However, it was quick to add that they do not want to auction the gold quickly as it kills customer loyalty. Manappuram kept a check on delinquency in its core business, with a strategy of prompt auctioning.

Both gold financing companies are diversification their loan book. Manappuram, for instance, now derives 25 percent of its assets under management (AUM) from non-gold lending. In FY18, its non-gold portfolio grew much faster.

Muthoot too is walking the path of diversification and plans to boost its share of non-gold loans to 20 percent by 2020 from 10 percent at present. It has two wholly-owned subsidiaries in the areas of home finance and insurance broking. It owns 66.6 percent in microfinance entity: Belstar Investment & Finance. The company also owns 60 percent stake in an asset financing company in Sri Lanka.

While a diversification strategy de-risks the book, the same is fraught with risks. For instance, diversification has come at a price for Manappuram. Growth in its non-core businesses accompanies a steady asset quality deterioration in its new businesses.

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Top 5 reasons why Rupee is on a tricky road ahead By TradeIndia Research 30-06-18

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Top 5 reasons why Rupee is on a tricky road ahead; could well hit Rs 70/USD soon

Rising oil prices, political risk in a pre-election year, low equity risk premia pointing towards relative high valuation and tightening financial conditions in the domestic economy are major factors specifically hurting the Rupee

The Rupee has had a rough 2018, which is not surprising as a number of factors are stacked against the currency. INR has weakened three-fourths of its major emerging market (EM) peers.

Rising oil prices, political risk in a pre-election year, low equity risk premia pointing towards relative high valuation and tightening financial conditions in the domestic economy are the major factors specifically hurting the Rupee.

Strong US economy is prompting the US Fed to tighten monetary policy and trade war are affecting more or less all emerging markets and hence not a Rupee-specific risk.

As a result, carry trade which is the biggest force that drives currency markets, especially EM currencies, is on reverse gear for Rupee in 2018.

Unlike last year, inflows in the bond market have turned negative, with $6.2 billion in the June quarter. FX traders who used to bet on Rupee appreciation last year by taking short positions in the USDINR forwards and futures are sitting on the sidelines.

A trade war is an election issue in America, as they head to mid-term polls in November 2018. Trump is determined to win the elections for Republicans and retain a majority in Senate and House.

He believes that spending, tax cuts, trade and emigration are issues which can get his party the winning votes. China is caught right in the middle of the trade fiasco, which is causing capital flight.

As a result, Chinese Yuan is spiralling lower and that is bad news for Rupee too, as weaker Yuan, in parity terms drags down INR too.

Iran sanctions are driving oil prices higher. Higher oil is bad news for India too. As a heuristic a $10/barrel average increase in oil prices can add 10 bps to India’s fiscal deficit through higher fuel subsidy.

Additionally, if the government reduces excise duty on petroleum products to reduce the burden on the citizens, then the exchequer takes an additional hit of around Rs 10,000 crore, which is around 6 bps of increase GFD.

Additionally, rising oil prices feed into consumer inflation through direct and indirect channels. As a rule of thumb, it can be said that a $10/barrel average increase in oil prices can increase CPI by around 40-50 bps.

Higher inflation is not only a drag on household consumption but also raises the possibility for RBI to tighten its monetary policy.

With US economy enjoying strong economic momentum and US government very much committed to use the fiscal levers to keep it that way, wage inflation has begun to rise.

This emboldens Fed and they can continue to hike rates and lower reserves in the system. That is also bad news for EM currency like Rupee.

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Friday 29 June 2018

Free Stock Tips,Sensex holds 200 points gains; all sectoral indices in the green By TradeIndia Research 29-06-18

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Sensex holds 200 points gains; all sectoral indices in the green

Gold rose early Friday after slipping to a more than six-month low in the previous session, as the dollar retreated from recent highs amid a rising euro, but the yellow metal was on track for its worst month since November 2016.

Spot gold was 0.2 percent higher at $1,250.90 an ounce. On Thursday, it touched USD 1,245.32, its lowest since December 13, 2017.

Shares of Sun TV Network gained 2 percent intraday Friday as research house Nomura maintained buy rating with a target of Rs 1105 per share.

According to Nomura, the company is a key beneficiary of digitisation in Tamil Nadu.

The broking house believes that digitization is likely to drive 15-23 percent growth.

The stock is trading at 19x FY20F consolidated EPS and expect 20 percent EPS CAGR FY18-20F, it added

The market remained strong in morning with the Nifty holding 10,650 level on the very first day of July series, backed by oil, metals, infra and FMCG stocks.

The 30-share BSE Sensex gained 194.71 points at 35,232.35 and the 50-share NSE Nifty rose 64.00 points to 10,653.10. About three shares advanced for every share falling on the BSE.

Share price of Newgen Software Technologies rose 5.3 percent intraday as company received work order worth Rs 63.93 crore.

The company has received a work order for document management system (DMS) and digitization project of the records of District and Subordinate courts in the state of Maharashtra on turnkey basis, subject to approval of pilot phase.

This work order pertains to digitisation of Judicial Records for Rs 63,93,24,000.

The work order does not fall within the definition of related party transaction as specified in the companies Act, 2013.

The market extended its opening gains with the Nifty trading above 10,650 levels on the first day of July series, backed by metals, oil and banking & financials stocks.

The 30-share BSE Sensex rose 223.45 points to 35,261.09 and the 50-share NSE Nifty gained 71.80 points at 10,660.90. About four shares advanced for every share falling on the BSE.

The Nifty Midcap rose over a percent on short covering.

All sectoral indices are in the green with Metal and PSU Bank leading the charge with over 2 percent gains.

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Latest Update,MCX SUPPORT & RESISTANCE LEVEL By TradeIndia Research 29-06-18

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MCX SUPPORT & RESISTANCE LEVEL

GOLD AUG FUTURE

R2–30700

R1-30600

S1-30400

S2-30300

SILVER JULY FUTURE

R2 –39600

R1- 39400

S1-39000

S2-38800

CRUDE OIL JULY FUTURE

R2 –5090

R1-5060

S1-5000

S2-4970

COPPER JUN FUTURE

R2 –455

R1-452.50

S1-447.50

S2-445

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Thursday 28 June 2018

Free Stock Tips,About 30 stocks gave compounded return of up to 78% in 5 years By TradeIndia Research 28-06-18

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About 30 stocks gave compounded return of up to 78% in 5 years

Although it is a far-fetched idea, but careful stock selection can help you achieve your goal.

D-Street is not very different from a cricket match and we say that because the ingredients are pretty much the same. You have to have patience, hard work, consistency as well as focus. Just like in a match, not all your batsmen will hit half-a-century or a century in your portfolio and neither will all your stocks outperform.

Well, as an equity investor we want all our stocks to perform consistently as Virat Kohli. Although it is a far-fetched idea but careful stock selection can help you achieve your goal.We looked at data of the companies in the S&P BSE 100 index and nearly 30 companies gave consistent CAGR return of over 20 percent in the last five years.

As many as 29 companies in the S&P BSE 100 index, including names like TVS Motor Company, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, Britannia Industries, Eicher Motors, Aurobindo Pharma, Biocon, Ashok Leyland, Maruti Suzuki etc., among others have given consistent returns of up to 78 percent in the last five years.

Well, the compound annual growth rate is more of a representational figure and not a true return. It is the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown at a steady rate. It is a way to smooth out an investment’s returns for better understanding and comparison.

To calculate compound annual growth rate, divide the value of an investment at the end of the period in question by its value at the beginning of that period, raise the result to the power of one divided by the period length, and subtract one from the subsequent result, as explained by Investopedia.

One thing is certain that most of the stocks have been consistent performers have good corporate governance along with the management’s visions to maintain their leadership position.

So consistency of companies that had historically outperformed depends on the potential to grow their top line or bottom line in the coming years. An investor could gain by investing in mispriced stock in short to medium term but a substantial CAGR gain over the year is possible from investing in growth stocks.

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Latest Update,MCX SUPPORT & RESISTENCE LEVEL By TradeIndia Research 28-06-18

MCX Free Tips | Free Stock Tips

MCX SUPPORT & RESISTENCE LEVEL

GOLD AUG FUTURE

R2–30900

R1-30800

S1-30600

S2-30500

SILVER JULY FUTURE

R2 –40000

R1- 39800

S1-39400

S2-39200

CRUDE OIL JULY FUTURE

R2 –5080

R1-5050

S1-4980

S2-4950

COPPER JUN FUTURE

R2 –459

R1-456.50

S1-451.50

S2-448

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Monday 25 June 2018

Sensex down over 100 points, Nifty gives up 10,800; banks, auto fall By TradeIndia Research 25-06-18

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Sensex down over 100 points, Nifty gives up 10,800; banks, auto fall

Shares of ICICI Bank lost around 2 percent in the morning trade as investors turned cautious of another whistleblower complaint against it.

Selling in automobiles and banking names has dragged the market from the flat lines, with the Nifty giving up 10,800-mark. IT, metals and pharma look to hold the market from falling further. Midcaps have given up all gains. Vedanta, Infosys, and Bajaj Finance are the top gainers, while Tata Motors and ICICI Bank have lost the most.

Shares of ICICI Bank lost around 2 percent in the morning trade as investors turned cautious of another whistleblower complaint against it.

The stock has touched an intraday high of Rs 300.20 and an intraday low of Rs 295.45.

The bank now faces allegations of "irregularities in the conduct of some borrower accounts" and "incorrect accounting", thanks to a third whistleblower complaint in as many years.

Brent crude oil prices fell over 1.5 percent on Monday as traders factored in an expected output increase that was agreed at the headquarters of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in Vienna on Friday.

Brent crude futures, the international benchmark for oil prices, were at USD 74.21 per barrel at 0343 GMT, down 1.8 percent from their last close.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $68.40 a barrel, down 0.3 percent, supported more than Brent by a slight drop in US drilling activity.

Prices initially jumped after the deal was announced late last week as it was not seen boosting supply by as much as some had expected.

Infosys, Lupin, IndusInd Bank, Vedanta are the top gainers, while Dr Reddy's, Tata Motors, ICICI Bank, RIL, Yes Bank and SBI are the top losers.

Among the sectors, auto, energy, infra are trading lower, while IT, metal and pharma gain the most.

Asian shares got the week off to a cautious start on Monday amid lingering concerns about escalating trade frictions while US oil prices maintained hefty gains made after major oil producers had agreed on a modest increase in production.

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Latest Update MCX SUPPORT & RESISTANCE LEVEL By TradeIndia Research 25-06-18

MCX Free Tips | Free Intraday Tips

MCX SUPPORT & RESISTANCE LEVEL

GOLD AUG FUTURE

R2–30850

R1-30750

S1-30550

S2-30450

SILVER JULY FUTURE

R2 –40300

R1- 40100

S1-39600

S2-39400

CRUDE OIL JULY FUTURE

R2 –4730

R1-4700

S1-4630

S2-4600

COPPER JUN FUTURE

R2 –461

R1-458.50

S1-456.50

S2-454

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Saturday 23 June 2018

Sensex ends flat but these 15 stocks rose 10-60% in a week By TradeIndia Research 23-06-18

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Sensex ends flat but these 15 stocks rose 10-60% in a week

It has been a roller coaster ride for Indian markets thanks to trade wars woes, uncertainty OPEC meet and selling by foreign institutional investors which have pulled out over Rs 5,000 crore from Indian markets in the month of June

The S&P BSE Sensex which hit a low of 35,249 on June 19 managed to recoup losses and closed flat with gains of 0.19 percent for the week ended June 22. The Nifty50 ended flat but with a positive bias at 10,821.85 in the same period.

While the action was missing in benchmark indices selective stocks in the smallcap space were buzzing. As many as 15 stocks in the S&P BSE Smallcap index rose 10-63 percent in just one week.

Stocks which registered double-digit return include names like Tree House Education (up 63 percent), followed by Zen Technologies (up 27 percent), Vakrangee (27.4 percent), Alok Industries (up 26 percent), Jaiprakash Associates (up 19 percent), and Liberty Shoes (up 16 percent).

Tree House Education was in focus after the company's associate company JT infrastructure Pvt. Ltd. sold part of its fixed assets including a land and building situated at Kalyan district in Thane near Mumbai, the company said a filing.

In the S&P BSE 500 index, only 4 stocks registered double-digit returns which include stocks like Vakrangee (up 27 percent), followed by Jaiprakash Associates (up 19 percent), Abbott India (up 13.69 percent), and Adani Transmission (up 10 percent).

Most of the stocks which registered gains saw value buying at lower levels, but does that make them great investment bets also? Well, maybe not.

There might be momentum in these stocks for now but data also suggest that most of the stocks in the above list witnessed selling pressure in the last 2-3 months. Analysts advise investors to stick to quality or in other words stay with large caps.

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