Market Update

Saturday 2 February 2019

The poll bugle with Interim Budget; what should investors do now?

the poll bugle with Interim Budget; what should investors do now?


The Interim Budget 2019 had something for everyone — focus on rural spending, a bonanza for middle-class, incentives for real estate & MSME segments, and was fiscally balanced with fiscal deficit target at 3.4% for FY19.
The Central government bias appeared to be clearly tilted towards populism ahead of the general elections due in April-May 2019 post the weak performance in recent state elections and concerns about farmer distress. One big factor which supported the market sentiment was the fiscal deficit number which got breached by only 10 bps and was revised upwards to 3.4 percent of GDP, but the disappointment could come for FY20 estimates which were also kept at 3.4 percent compared to expectations of 3.1-3.2 percent which in other words mean more fiscal stress.
The S&P BSE Sensex reclaimed 36,000 while Nifty50 closed a tad below 10,900 on the Budget day. Infra, realty, auto are some of the sectors which put up a strong show on Friday. The government increased the FY19 fiscal deficit target by 10 bps to 3.4 percent of GDP, which was largely in line with market expectation. However, the government estimates that FY20 fiscal deficit will remain at an elevated level of 3.4 percent of GDP, which was a deviation from the 3.1 percent of GDP projected in the medium-term fiscal policy statement last year
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